On 24/09/2021 TraderTalent.com is bringing you another guest post from Bryan Noble.
U.S. Equity Markets continued to rebound, finishing yesterday’s session higher, led by the Dow closing with a gain of 1.48%, on a day the VIX closed 11% lower at a price of 18.59. Markets opened sharply higher after Wednesday’s Federal Reserve announcement. Remember, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said monetary policy will remain accommodative, but the central bank could begin to taper asset purchases as soon as next month. Jobless Claims and PMI data were the big economic data points of the day. Jobless Claims rose again and came in above estimates, indicating continued volatility in the labour market’s recovery. As for PMI data, Manufacturing PMI fell as expected, but matched estimates. However, the composite PMI fell to the slowest expansion since August 2020 with weakness in new orders. European Markets surged. Investors were optimistic about the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold off on tapering asset purchases for now. In addition, French business confidence figures for September were stronger than expected as services sector confidence rose while the manufacturing sector held steady. Markit Euro-Zone’s preliminary composite purchasing managers’ index (“PMI”) data for September was weaker than anticipated, as supply constraints weigh on output. That is a signal growth could be even stronger than what the region is currently experiencing. Several European Central Bank governing council members were said to be preparing for “sticky” inflation, saying the forecast is too low, according to a report from Reuters. They also said that they expect the end of the pandemic-era asset purchases in March 2022. In Asia, China’s State Council said national policy should be preemptive and better coordinated across all branches of government to stabilize reasonable market expectations. South Korea’s preliminary export numbers for September expanded for the 11th consecutive month, as semiconductor demand remained strong. Markit Australia’s preliminary composite PMI data rose versus August as new orders and employment rebounded. Those were the positives. On the other side of the coin, Japan’s Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga said the Country’s peace and prosperity are threatened by China’s military power. These comments were made ahead of a summit tomorrow with the leaders of Australia, India, and the U.S., in Washington, D.C. Elsewhere, Gold fell 1.84% as investors worried the dollar is headed higher when the Fed begins to taper bond purchases, while Oil rallied a further 140% after a Syncrude mechanical issue threatened to disrupt supply.
To mark my 2400th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 265 points yesterday and is now ahead by 2456 points for September, having closed August with a gain of 1543 points, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, and 2273 points last December. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
The S&P 500 closed 1.21% higher at a price of 4449.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 506 points higher for a 1.48% gain at a price of 34,764.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.92% higher at a price of 15,316.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.8% higher.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.5%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 2.13% higher at a price of 30,270
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.3% lower.
The Euro closed 0.3% higher at $1.1735.
The British Pound closed 0.8% higher at 1.3718.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.4%, closing at $110.42.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed five basis points higher at -0.25%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed eighteen basis points higher at 0.90%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed eleven basis points higher at 1.43%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.40% higher at $73.30 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.84% lower at $1,745 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have the German IFO at 9.00 am. This is followed by U.S. New Home Sales at 3.00 pm. Finally, we have a host of Fed Speakers today, namely Mester, George, Powell, Bowman and Clarida which starts from 1.45 pm with Powell the highlight at 3.00 pm.
December S&P 500
Every dip in U.S Indexes continues to be bought with ferocity as the S&P managed to close yesterday’s session above it’s 50-Day Moving Average (4427 December Contract). The S&P has now rallied over 150 Handles above last Monday’s 4295 low print as yet again anyone selling in the whole gets slammed. In my opinion, there is not a chance that Inflation is transitory given the recent spike in Energy Prices on top of the surge in rentals across the U.S. over the past six months. The fact that Fed Members Kaplan and Rosengren were deemed to be trading Futures Contracts ahead of key speeches with no repercussions so far despite making sizeable gains on these positions says a lot about the credibility and leadership at the Fed. The bubble created over the past 12 years is nothing that we have ever witnessed before. The $1 Trillion that has flowed into stocks so far in 2021 is bigger than the last 20 years combined, while Market Cap to GDP remains above 200% despite the sell-off on stocks over the previous week. Shortly, after I posted yesterday morning the S&P rallied to my 4415 sell level before selling off to my 4406 revised T/P level. Subsequently, I emailed my Platinum Members to sell the S&P again and I am now short at an average rate of 4430. Ahead of Powell’s speech at 3.00 pm, I have now exited this position here for a small loss at 4432 and I am now flat. The S&P has resistance at yesterday’s high where I will be a seller from 4450/4465 with a 4481 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 4438. I do not want to be long the S&P at this time.
My latest 1.1690 long position worked well with the market trading higher to my 11720 T/P level and I am now flat. The Euro has strong support from 1.1635/1.1685 where I will again be a buyer with a 1.1595 tight stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1.1715.
December Dollar Index
My 93.45 short Dollar position worked well as the market hit my 93.20 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 93.40/93.80 with a tight 94.21 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 93.15.
I am not going to chase the DAX higher, leaving my 15380/15460 buy level unchanged with the same 15295 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15510.
Overnight, the FTSE traded lower to my 7030 initial buy level. It is no surprise that the FTSE is lower given the 18 point rally in 10-year Gilt Yields yesterday. Inflation is now a major concern in the UK and is certainly not ‘’transitory’’. Sooner or later both the Fed and ECB will wake up to this fact but at that stage it will be too late. As I am short the Dow, I still have this FTSE position with a now 7055 lower T/P level. I will add to this trade at 6980 with the same 6935 stop. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow has now rallied over 900 points in the past 48 hours. This move higher saw the whole of yesterday’s sell range executed for a now 34660 average short position. I will now raise my T/P level on this trade to 34610 while leaving my 34845 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged for now.
My NASDAQ plan worked well with the market hitting my 15300 sell level before selling off to my 15250 revised T/P level and I am now flat. Higher Bond Yields are putting pressure on the NASDAQ this morning. We have resistance from 15320/15410 where I will again be a seller with a 15505 stop. I still do not want to be long the NASDAQ at this time. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 15250.
The BUND got hit hard yesterday. This does not suit the ECB given the level of debt. This move lower saw my 170.60 buy level filled. I will only add to this position at 170.10 with a tight 169.75 stop. I will now lower my T/P level on this trade to 170.85.
Gold Rolling Contract
My Gold plan worked well with the market hitting my 1746 buy level late yesterday, before rallying to my 1755 T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Service early this morning and I am now flat. Gold has support from 1720/1735 where I will again be a buyer with a 1708 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1743.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat. I will now lower my buy level to 21.50/22.10 with a 20.95 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 22.45.
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