On 24/11/2021 TraderTalent.com is bringing you another guest post from Bryan Noble.
After a volatile trading session which saw plenty of two-way price action, U.S. Equity Markets finished yesterday mixed. While the Dow closed higher by 0.54%, the NASDAQ 100 finished the session with a loss of 0.45%. President Joe Biden announced that the U.S. would release 50 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve in a coordinated move with several other countries to lower oil prices. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said that the central bank may need to accelerate the pace of its asset purchase tapering programme. He said that he could see the taper being complete at some point in the first quarter of 2022, instead of the current timeline of finishing the taper at the end of the second quarter. This echoed last week’s comments from Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida and Fed Governor Christopher Waller, continuing the central bank’s recent hawkish commentary. In terms of economic data, IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI came in above estimates with strength in new orders. But Services PMI fell more than expected, as input prices hit a six-month high. Within the S&P 500, eight of the 11 sectors finished higher. European Markets closed lower. Markit Euro-Zone’s preliminary composite purchasing managers’ index (“PMI”) data for November was stronger than expected due to increased Manufacturing and Services activity. Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (“OPEC”) delegates said it may be forced to reduce output increases next week in response to planned petroleum reserve releases. German Health Minister Jens Spahn said lockdowns and mandatory vaccines were on the table as the country looks to combat rising COVID infections. In Asia, The People’s Bank of China’s Zou Lan said it will encourage financial institutions to lend more to small and medium-sized enterprises, manufacturers, and energy producers. The Bank of Korea’s consumer confidence data for November rose from October, as individuals were increasingly optimistic about employment opportunities and spending plans. Taiwan’s export order value numbers for October declined versus November, as shipments to the U.S. and China slid. Japanese markets were closed for the Labour Thanksgiving Day Holiday. Elsewhere, Oil rose 2.63% as uncertainty of how governments would add supply to the market was removed, bringing back buyers, while Gold fell 0.82%, closing below $1800.
To mark my 2425th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 200 points yesterday, and is now ahead by 1253 points for November, after ending October with a gain of 1028 points, 2866 points in September, 1543 points in August, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, and 2273 points last December. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
The S&P 500 closed 0.17% higher at a price of 4690.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 194 points higher for a 0.55% gain at a price of 35,813.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.45% lower at a price of 16,306.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.9% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.4%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.10% higher at a price of 29,774.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.1% lower.
The Euro closed 0.1% higher at $1.1258.
The British Pound closed 0.1% lower at 1.3378.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.2%, closing at $115.10.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed seven basis points higher at -0.22%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed six basis points higher at 1.00%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed five basis points higher at 1.68%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.63% higher at $78.05 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.82% lower at $1,788.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have the German IFO ZEW Business Survey at 9.00 am, and the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm. Next, we have the Weekly Jobless Claims, Wholesale Inventories, Trade Balance and the PCE Expenditures at 1.30 pm. Finally, we have GDP, New Home Sales, Personal Spending and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index at 3.00 pm.
December S&P 500
A frustrating trading session for my S&P calls as the market missed my 4701 initial sell level with a 4695 high print before selling off to an afternoon low of 4649, thus missing my 4647 buy level Subsequently the S&P surged into the close, finishing yesterday’s session near the high of the day and I am still flat. As this is one of the seasonally strongest trading weeks of the year, I am not surprised by the late comeback. I should have trusted my gut more with a higher buy range. With most traders now on vacation until Monday, today should be quiet. I will now raise my S&P sell level to 4708/4725 with a 4741 ‘’Closing Stop’’ which is just above Monday’s all-time high. I will also raise my buy level to 4647/4662 with a 4635 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 4698. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4673.
The Euro rallied to my 1.1275 T/P level on Monday’s 1.1240 long position and I am now flat. With sentiment towards the Euro at extreme levels I am happy to be a buyer of dips. The Euro has support from 1.1180/1.1230 where I will be a buyer with a 1.1135 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1.1270.
December Dollar Index
No Change. I am still short at a price of 96.50 with the same 96.15 T/P level. I will add to this trade at 97.00 while leaving my 97.35 stop unchanged. If any of the above levels are triggered, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Even though the DAX closed below the key 16000 support level, I am reluctant to chase the market lower. We have resistance from 16170/16250 and I will just lower my sell level to this range with a 16325 stop. I still do not want to be long the market at this time. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 16125.
In contrast to the other European Markets, the FTSE closed higher yesterday, helped by a weaker Pound. I am still flat and I will now raise my sell level again to 7320/7370 with a tight 7405 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 7290.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow had a wild trading session, making a morning low of 35419 before turning around ad rallying 400 points into the close, helped by higher Oil prices and stronger Financials on the back of 10-Year Treasuries touching 1.70%. Late in the day, the Dow hit my 35810 sell level before falling 80 points, enabling me to cover this position at my 35780 revised T/P level and I am now flat. The Dow has further resistance from 35950/36120 where I will again be a small seller with a 36255 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 35820.
The NDX fell shy of my 16510 sell level before hitting an afternoon low at 16115. Subsequently the NDX followed the other Indexes higher into the close and I am still flat. I will now lower my sell level to 16420/16520 with a wider 16555 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be long the NDX at this time. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 16350.
The Bund got hit hard yesterday, closing 120 points lower as the market never came close to my sell range. Thankfully we had no buy level for the Bund yesterday. The Bund has strong support from 169.30/169.80 where I will be a buyer with a 168.85 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 170.20.
Gold Rolling Contract
My 1819 long Gold position did not work out as I was stopped out of this position early yesterday at 1799 and I am still flat. I will stay flat Gold until the U.S. Markets re-open fully next Monday.
Silver Rolling Contract
Just like Gold above, I was stopped out of Monday’s 24.20 long Silver position at 23.55 and I am still flat. I much prefer to be a buyer of Silver than Gold as this market has severely underperformed the other precious metals over the past few years. Silver has support from 22.60/23.20 where I will again be a buyer with a 21.95 wider stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 23.55.
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