On 25/06/2021 TraderTalent.com is bringing you another guest post from Bryan Noble.
U.S. Equity Markets rose on optimism about an infrastructure package with both the S&P and NASDAQ 100 closing at new all-time highs, while the VIX closed lower by 2% at 15.97. Equity Markets gained after two mixed days. Jobless Claims were the big story of the morning. Initial claims fell from the previous week, but came in above estimates. And while they did not resume their decline, this could be seen as a positive for markets. A choppy recovery in the labour market means that the Federal Reserve will keep policy loose, as it is looking for more of a recovery here before pulling back. Later in the day, there was a positive development in the ongoing infrastructure negotiations. President Joe Biden and a bipartisan group of Senators had reportedly reached a deal on an infrastructure package worth around $1 trillion. While this is a positive development, the path for the proposal to pass through Congress still remains unclear. European Markets again closed higher. The Institute for Economic Research’s German Business Sentiment Index for June was stronger than expected, hitting its highest level in two years, as coronavirus restrictions are easing. French Business Confidence for June rose to the highest level since 2007, beating expectations, as service sector momentum is rebounding rapidly. European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said he expects the region to see significant economic growth in the second quarter as well as the second half of this year. In Asia, The People’s Bank of China increased the amount of liquidity introduced to the financial system for the first time since March, adding $4.6 billion. Japan’s services Producer Price Index data for May were in line with expectations on a year-over-year basis, but continued to fall on a monthly basis versus the peak hit in March. The Bank of Korea’s consumer confidence index reading for June rose versus May, as individuals are increasingly optimistic about the economy, employment, and spending plans. Elsewhere, Bitcoin rose 5.74% on reports that Citibank has started a digital asset group within its wealth management division, while Gold fell 0.51% on renewed Dollar strength.
To mark my 2350th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 100 points yesterday and is now ahead by 899 points for June having made 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, 2273 points in December, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September and 2383 points in August. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
The S&P 500 closed 0.58% higher at a price of 4266.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 322 points higher for a 0.95% gain at a price of 34,196
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.64% higher at a price of 14,365.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.4% higher after a volatile trading session.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.3%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.66% higher at a price of 29,066.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.1% lower.
The Euro closed 0.1% higher at $1.1937.
The British Pound closed 03% lower at 1.3925.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.1%, closing at $110.75.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed two basis points higher at -0.19%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed five basis points higher at 0.74%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed one basis points higher at 1.50%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.25% higher at $73.38 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.51% lower at $1,770.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone Money Supply at 9.00 am. This is followed by the Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin at 12.00 pm. At 1.30 pm we have U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure and this will be closely watched by the Fed and Markets. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 3.00 pm and a speech from Fed Member Rosengren at 6.00 pm.
September S&P 500
I am still flat the S&P as the market closed at yet another new all-time high as this Fed Fuelled rally shows no sign of ending. I will now raise my sell level to 4274/4288 with a higher 4301 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now raise my buy level to 4230/4244 with a higher and tight 4219 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 4265. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4255.
The boring sideways price action in the Euro continues and I am still flat. Ahead of the weekend I will leave my 1.1840/1.1890 buy level unchanged with the same 1.1795 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1.1925.
September Dollar Index
No Change as I am still a small seller from 92.05/92.45 with the same 92.75 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 91.80.
The DAX never came close to my lower buy level before rallying to sit above 15560 this morning. I will now raise my buy level to 15320/15400 with a higher 15245 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15455.
Although the FTSE closed higher yesterday, it is struggling to follow the gains of the major European Indexes and I am still flat The FTSE has short-term support from 6950/7005 and I will now raise my buy level to this area with a tight 6895 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 7035.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well with the market trading higher to my initial 34180 sell level before falling 90 points, enabling me to cover this position at my revised 34110 T/P level and I am now flat. Shortly after the U.S. Markets re-opened last night the Dow broke its 50 Day Moving Average (34221) to sit at 34275 this morning. The Dow has short-term support from 33860/34110 where I will be a small buyer with a 33745 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The Dow has resistance from 34550/34730 where I will again be a seller with a 34845 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 34230. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 34450.
The NASDAQ made a new all-time high at 14429. This move higher put me short at 14390 before we had a small sell-off to my 14360 revised T/P level and I am now flat. The NASDAQ has further resistance from 14480/14550 where I will again be a seller with a 14635 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I am not going to chase the NASDAQ higher and I will continue to be a strong buyer on any dip lower to 14100/14190 with the same 13995 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 14420. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 14270.
I am still flat the Bund as the market continues to hold the 17150/172.00 support area. Ahead of the weekend I will now raise my sell level to 172.90/173.40 with a higher 173.78 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 172.60.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat. I still do not trust any upmove in Gold as everyone I talk to is long the precious metal. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 1742/1757 with a 1729 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1765.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still a buyer from 25.10/25.70 with a higher 24.82 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 26.00.
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