On 25/08/2021 TraderTalent.com is bringing you another guest post from Bryan Noble.
U.S. Equity Markets continued their winning streak, finishing yesterday’s session higher, led by the Russell 2000 which closed with a 1.02% gain. Markets continued to rise after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s decision to fully approve Pfizer and BioNTech’s (BNTX) COVID-19 vaccine. This opened up the potential for increased domestic vaccinations. On infrastructure, a report from the Washington Post suggested that the House of Representatives could approve the bill within the next month. Economic data was mixed, as New Home Sales rose above estimates but the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond’s Activity Index matched the lowest level since June 2020. Investment banks continued to get more bullish on the market, with analysts at Wells Fargo (WFC) raising their price target on the S&P 500 to the highest on Wall Street. The analysts said fiscal stimulus and relative valuation were the two reasons to be bullish for the rest of 2021. European Markets closed mixed. Germany’s Second-Quarter Final Gross Domestic Product data was stronger than expected, rising versus the preliminary result, on increased consumer spending. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, during an event in Düsseldorf, said the government is aiming for no new coronavirus restrictions this year, but it must remain vigilant. The Confederation of British Industry said Retail Sales surged 60% so far in 2021, marking the fastest growth since December 2014. In Asia, The People’s Bank of China said it would increase the supply of credit and available capital to small businesses in an effort to support the economic growth outlook. Japan’s growth sentiment improved on hopes of increasing inoculations, after Pfizer’s (PFE) COVID-19 vaccine received full regulatory approval in the U.S. The Bank of Korea’s Consumer Confidence figures for August fell versus July, as households were less optimistic about the employment situation and the domestic economy. Taiwan’s Industrial Production numbers for July were weaker than expected, falling versus June, as electronic-parts and medical-products activity slowed. Elsewhere, Oil rose 2.89% as it continued to rally on little news, while Bitcoin declined 2% after hitting $50,000 on Monday.
To mark my 2375th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 30 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1222 points for August, having closed July with a gain of 996 points. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, and 2273 points last December. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
The S&P 500 closed 0.15% higher at a price of 4486.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 30 points higher for a 0.09% gain at a price of 35,366.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.29% higher at a price of 15,357.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.3% higher.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.5%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.03%lower at a price of 27,724
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.1% lower.
The Euro closed 0.1% higher at $1.1758.
The British Pound closed 0.1% lower at 1.3721.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.1%, closing at $109.73.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed one basis points higher at -0.46%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed one basis points higher at 0.55%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed one basis points higher at 1.28%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.89% higher at $67.54 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.03% higher at $1,804.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have the German IFO Survey at 9.00 am. This is followed by U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm. Finally, at 1.30 pm we have Durable Goods Orders.
September S&P 500
The S&P made it s 51st all-time yesterday in what turned how to be a quiet trading session after the 130 Handle rally over the previous two sessions. This market is getting more and more overbought for all the reasons that I have outlined over the past two months. Remember and this is important, the Third Standard Deviation is at a price 260 Handles below current levels at 4221. The price action is reminiscent of 1987 when the US Indexes topped in August that year before we had the 1987 Crash in October. I am still flat the S&P and I will now lower my sell level to 4494/4509 with now lower 4527 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Meanwhile, I will not chase the S&P higher, leaving my 4437/4452 buy level unchanged with the same 4423 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 4484. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4464.
No Change. I am still a buyer from 1.1670/1.1710 with the same 1.1625 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1.1740.
September Dollar Index
I will now lower my sell level slightly to 93.30/93.70 with a lower 94.05 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 93.05.
The DAX continues to find strong resistance at the 16000 level. The DAX needs to break and close below the 15600/15700 support area before finally we will see a meaningful correction. Today, I will leave my 15985/16055 sell level unchanged with the same 16110 stop. I will be a small buyer from 15600/15680 with a 15535 tight stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 15940. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15730.
My FTSE plan worked well yesterday as the market traded lower to my 7060 initial buy level before rallying to my 7090 T/P level and I am still flat. The FTSE continues to trade heavy. I am still reluctant to go short and today my buy level will be from 6980/7040 with a 6935 tight stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 7075.
Dow Rolling Contract
Despite all the positive noise coming out of CNN about how well the U.S. Economy is doing, I am convinced that we are closer to having a recession based on the release of Consumer Sentiment, Retail Sales and the dramatic slowdown in hotel bookings and car sales over the past two months. The FIBER Leading Growth Index is hardly pointing to a turnaround. It slowed to a mere 1.14% in the week of August 20th, a haircut from 1.20% on August 13th, 1.23% on August 6th and a far cry from 5.18% at the end of June and 8.14% at the end of May. This Index was last here at the end of May 2020 when the economy was still trying to emerge from the vertical plunge in the prior two months. The New York Fed’s ‘’Nowcast’’ forecasting model is predicting a 3.5% real GDP growth for the Current Quarter, a far cry from Kaplan’s 6.5% prediction last Friday. The current pricing in Bonds is telling you that a recession is coming and that inflation is now behind us as deflationary forces take over. I am still flat the Dow. I will now lower my buy level to 35080/35230 with a lower 34865 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The Dow has resistance from 35520/35670 where I will be a small seller with a 35805 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 35340. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 35420.
I am still flat. I will now lower my buy level to 15220/15140 with a lower 15065 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The NASDAQ has resistance from 15450/15550 where I will be a seller with a 15625 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15280. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 15390.
No Change. I am still a seller from 177.15/177.55 with the same 177.91 tight stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 176.90.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold fell just shy of my 1790 buy level overnight and I am still flat. With the Euro opening lower this morning, I will now lower my buy level to 1763/1778 with a lower 1751 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1785.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat Silver and I will continue to be a small buyer from 22.70/23.30 with the same 22.25 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 23.70.
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