U.S. Equity Markets ended the week on a high note, led by the NASDAQ which closed with a gain of 1.44%. Markets rebounded from Thursday’s late-day sell-off. Some of the fear over President Joe Biden’s capital gains tax proposal subsided. While the plan is likely to get the support of the House of Representatives, the path through the Senate is much tougher. The legislation will have a hard time garnering the 60 votes necessary for passage. Economic data were positive. Markit Manufacturing and Services PMI reached their highest level ever in April, on strength in demand and business capacity after the lifting of restrictions. This is another strong sign for the economic rebound. Vaccine optimism also rose on reports the Food and Drug Administration (“FDA”) would likely lift the pause on Johnson & Johnson’s coronavirus vaccine. That allowed JNJ shots to be administered over the weekend, boosting the pace of vaccinations once again. European Markets closed lower despite strong Economic Data. Markit Euro-Zone’s preliminary composite Purchasing Manager’s Index (“PMI”) data for April was stronger than expected, signalling economic expansion. Russia’s central bank raised interest rates by 0.5%, citing a rapid economic recovery and new inflationary pressures. European Central Bank Governing Council member Pablo Hernandez de Cos said its pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme should be adjusted to counter a rise in interest rates. Meanwhile, in Asia, Markit Japan’s preliminary composite PMI data for April gained versus March, rising back into growth territory as manufacturing activity kept expanding. Japan’s core Consumer Price Index data for March was in line with expectations, rising versus February, but remained well below the central bank’s 2% target. Markit Australia’s preliminary composite PMI data for April rose versus March, expanding for the eighth straight month as new orders and employment gained. China’s Foreign Affairs Committee spokesperson said the country opposes any official interactions between the U.S. and Taiwan as it violates the “one China” principle. Elsewhere, Oil closed 1.16% higher as strong economic data boosted the demand outlook, while Bitcoin rallied off earlier lows to close 1.25% lower after reports that the government could impose an 80% capital gains tax on cryptocurrencies.
To mark my 2300th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was flat on Friday and is still ahead by 554 points for April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, having made 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, 2273 points in December, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September and 2383 points in August. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
The S&P 500 closed 1.09% higher at a price of 4180.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 227 points higher for a 0.67% gain at a price of 34,043.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.31% higher at a price of 13,941.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.8% higher.
Last Friday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.3%.
Last Friday, the Nikkei closed 0.57% lower at a price of 29,020.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.3% lower
The Euro closed 0.7% higher at $1.2096.
The British Pound closed 0.3% higher at $1.3882
The Japanese Yen closed 0.1% lower at 10781 per dollar.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed one basis points higher at -0.25%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed one basis points higher at 0.74%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed one basis points higher at 1.55%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.16% higher at $61.92 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.31% lower at $1,77510 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have the German IFO Survey at 9.00 am. This is followed by U.S Durable Goods Orders at 1.30 pm. Finally, we have the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index at 3.30 pm.
June S&P 500
For me personally, April has been a tough month to trade. Every indicator that I follow, points to a top in the market but each time we get excited with a potential down move, buyers return with aggressive buying as we saw again on Friday when the S&P made a new all-time high after rallying 60 Handles off its early afternoon low print. This move higher saw me go short at a 4155 average level before the market fell 20 Handles from its latest 4186 high print into the close. I will now look to exit this short position for a small loss at 4163 and go flat. Meanwhile, I will leave my 4185 ”Closing Stop” unchanged. The S&P has support from 4138/4153 and I will be a buyer on any dip to this area with a 4127 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If my 4163 exit level is filled, I will again look to sell the S&P from 4190/4205 with a 4221 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4164. If I am taken short a second time I will have a T/P level at 4179.
The Euro never came close to my 11970 buy level before rallying 100 points, closing at 1.2095. The Euro is short-term overbought, with resistance from 1.2120/1.2160 where I will be a small seller with a 1.2205 stop. I will now raise my buy level to 1.1980/1.2020 with a now higher 1.1935 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 1.2090. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1.2055.
June Dollar Index
Just before the New York close, the Dollar traded lower to my 90.80 buy level. I am still long and I will add to this trade at 90.30 while leaving my 89.95 stop unchanged. I will now lower my T/P level to 91.10 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
I am still flat and today, I will raise my buy level to 15020/15090 with a tight 14945 stop. I still do not trust this upmove in the DAX and is why I am reluctant to chase the price higher. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15135.
Just like the DAX above, I am still flat the FTSE which continues to trade sideways to heavy. The FTSE has support from 6780/6830 and I will raise my buy level to this area with a higher 6745 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 6860.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow rose sharply on Friday with volume falling which has been the theme for the past six weeks. We are now seeing a pattern of higher volume on declines and lower volume on rallies. Whereas the S&P made a new all-time on Friday, the Dow did not, before falling 150 points from it’s intra day high into the close in the last ten minutes of trading. I am still flat. The Dow has resistance from 34170/34320 where I will be a seller with a 34445 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now raise my buy level to 33580/33750 with a higher 33445 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have as T/P level at 34050. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 33890.
The NASDAQ traded the whole of Friday’s sell range for a now 13890 average short position. I will leave my 14005 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged while raising my T/P level to 13870. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
I am still flat and I will continue to be a small buyer from 169.90/170.30 while leaving my stop unchanged at 169.65. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 170.60.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold again traded in a narrow range on Friday, before having a small sell-off into the close. I will now lower my buy level to 1736/1751 with a tight 1727 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1759.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat and I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 25.00/25.50 while leaving my 24.65 tight stop unchanged. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 25.85.
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