On 26/08/2021 TraderTalent.com is bringing you another guest post from Bryan Noble.
U.S. Equity Markets moved higher on another quiet day, as both the S&P and NASDAQ 100 made further new highs for the year, while the Russell 2000 again led yesterday’s gains, closing higher by 0.37%. It was a relatively quiet day for markets. Markets opened higher after recording the 50th record high for the S&P 500 on Tuesday. There was some focus on short covering, as “meme” stocks and the most-shorted stocks continued to rally off their lows from last week. Regarding COVID-19, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Dr. Anthony Fauci said the U.S. could bring COVID-19 infections under control by next spring with full vaccine approval. Investors are still looking ahead to the start of the Kansas City Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium tomorrow. The big thing investors will be looking for is any clues on asset purchases tapering, which many see being announced in September. European Markets closed mixed. European Central Bank Governing Council member Isabel Schnabel stressed the importance of flexibility on monetary stimulus, as each country’s economy is affected differently. Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index fell in August on continued supply chain issues and lower sentiment because of COVID-19 variants. Israel’s health ministry said early data indicates a COVID-19 booster shot to fully vaccinated individuals is causing the Delta variant’s spread to subside. In Asia, The People’s Bank of China said it added $1.5 billion to the financial system via reverse repurchase operations to boost banking liquidity. Japan’s government is expected to extend the current coronavirus state of emergency to seven additional prefectures until September 12, bringing the total to almost half the country. The Bank of Korea’s September Manufacturing Business Confidence Index figures rose versus August, as companies were increasingly optimistic about current sales and profitability. The Australian Bureau of Statistics’ second-quarter construction output change was weaker than expected, as the rate of growth in new private residential construction contracted. Elsewhere, Oil gained a further 1.18% after a fire on a Mexican drilling platform lowered the country’s production, while Gold fell 0.88% after meeting strong resistance at the 200-Day Moving Average.
To mark my 2375th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 120 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1342 points for August, having closed July with a gain of 996 points. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, and 2273 points last December. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
The S&P 500 closed 0.22% higher at a price of 4496.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 39 points higher for a 0.11% gain at a price of 35,405.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.07% higher at a price of 15,368.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.3% higher.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.2%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.06% higher at a price of 27,742
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.1% lower.
The Euro closed 0.1% higher at $1.1771.
The British Pound closed 0.2% higher at 1.3745.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.3%, closing at $109.98.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed three basis points higher at -0.43%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed five basis points higher at 0.60%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed five basis points higher at 1.33%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.14% higher at $68.31 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.88% lower at $1,786.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German GFK Consumer Confidence which fell 1.2% versus -0.7% expected. At 9.00 am we have Euro-Zone Money Supply and this is followed at 12.30 pm by the Minutes from last Month’s ECB Meeting. Next, we have U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims, GDP and Personal Income/Spending at 1.30 pm. Finally, at 4.00 pm we have the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index.
September S&P 500
The S&P made its 51st New High for the year yesterday afternoon. This move higher saw my 4496 sell level hit before the market traded lower overnight to my 4484 T/P level and I am now flat. All eyes will turn to Fed Chairman Powell’s virtual address at Jackson Hole tomorrow afternoon. Given how overbought this market is, I will continue to sell the rallies. I want to be positioned short to catch the sizeable 10% correction that I am expecting. This sell-off could come in a furious hurry and one is either in the move or not. I can see an initial correction to flush out in a matter of 4-5 days once the trend breaks in earnest. So far 2021 is void of any corrective activity yet the technical extensions, valuations and the one-sided positioning with margin debt to boot are the most extreme we have ever seen, making the prospect for a quick unwind even more dire in terms of risk, especially with all these volatility structures in place. Today, I will again be a seller from 4496/4511 with a 4521 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now raise my buy level slightly to 4445/4460 with a higher 4429 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 4486. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4471.
The Euro fell shy of my 1.1710 buy level before rallying to sit at 1.1760 this morning. I will now raise my buy level to 1.1675/1.1725 with a 1.1639 tight stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1.1755.
September Dollar Index
No Change. I am still a small seller from 93.30/93.70 with the same 94.05 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 93.05.
The DAX continues to find strong resistance from 15950/16020 and I am still flat. It is only a matter of time before the key 15600 support level is broken in my opinion. With the DAX opening lower at 15750 this morning, I will now lower my buy level to 15540/15610 with a lower 15475 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15660.
No Change. I am still a buyer from 6980/7040 with the same 6935 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 7075.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow just missed my initial 35520 sell level with a 35501 high print before selling off 150 points and I am still flat. Ahead of Powell’s speech tomorrow, I will continue to be small buyer from 35080/35230 with the same 34865 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now raise my sell level to 35580/35730 with a higher 35855 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 35340. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 35480.
No Change. I am still a strong buyer from 15220/15140 with the same 15065 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The NASDAQ has resistance from 15450/15550 and I will continue to be a seller on any rally to this area with the same 15625 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15270. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 15390.
Unfortunately, the Bund juts missed my 177.15 sell level with a 177.06 high print before selling off over 100 points and I am still flat. The break and close below 176.70 is bearish. I will now lower my sell level to 176.45/176.95 with a lower 177.31 stop. I still do not want to be long the Bund at this time. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 176.20.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat as Gold again found huge resistance at its 200 Day MA, above 1800. I will now lower my buy level to 1755/1770 with a lower 1743 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1777.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 22.60/23.20 with the same 2225 tight stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 23.55.
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