On 27/07/2021 TraderTalent.com is bringing you another guest post from Bryan Noble.
U.S. Equity Markets bounced around to start the week before rallying to end yesterday’s session at new highs, led by the Dow which closed with a gain of 0.24%. Markets opened lower before recovering throughout the day. Infrastructure made some headlines. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) told ABC’s “This Week” that she was optimistic about the $579 billion package, adding that she hoped it would pass in the Senate. However, she tied the infrastructure bill to a larger spending package. In terms of economic data, New Home Sales hit the lowest level since April 2020, as supply chain issues slowed the rate of new construction. The big catalysts for the week remain ahead. Earnings season is important, with 180 of the S&P 500’s components reporting this week – including the all- important Big Tech companies. The Federal Reserve’s policy announcement tomorrow will also be closely watched. European Markets closed mixed. German Head of the Chancellery Helge Braun said another coronavirus-related lockdown in the country was unlikely, but unvaccinated people may face restrictions. The German Ifo Business Climate Index unexpectedly fell in July, with respondents citing worries over rising COVID-19 cases and supply chain issues. Investors await the release of advanced second-quarter gross domestic product figures on Friday, for an update on the health of the region’s economic recovery. In Asia, China’s State Council said it will no longer allow online learning or educational technology companies to raise capital through initial public offerings, stoking technology crackdown fears. Markit Japan’s preliminary composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (“PMI”) data for July declined versus June, as the services sector’s contraction worsened due to COVID-19 restrictions. Taiwan’s industrial production figures for June beat expectations, as demand for electronic parts and semiconductors accelerated versus the month prior. South Korea’s government extended coronavirus-related social-distancing curbs in and around Seoul for another two weeks, as infection cases continued to rise. Elsewhere, Oil and Gold closed flat while Bitcoin surged over $40,000 on speculation that that Amazon (AMZN) could begin accepting cryptocurrency payments, before falling overnight to sit at $37,200 as I post this commentary.
To mark my 2350th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 160 points yesterday and is now ahead by 944 points for July after making 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, 2273 points in December, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September and 2383 points in August. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
The S&P 500 closed 0.24% higher at a price of 4422.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 82 points higher for a 0.24% gain at a price of 35,144.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.09% higher at a price of 15,125.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.5% higher.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.8%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.49% higher at a price of 27,970.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.1% lower.
The Euro closed 0.2% higher at $1.1801.
The British Pound closed 0.4% higher at 1.3811.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.2%, closing at $110.17.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed two basis points higher at -0.41%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed two basis points lower at 0.57%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed three basis points higher at 1.28%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.12% lower at $71.92 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.21% lower at $1,798.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone Money Supply at 9.00 am This is followed at 1.30 pm by U.S. Durable Goods Orders and the Housing Price Index at 2.00 pm. Finally, we have Consumer Confidence and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index at 3.00 pm
Earnings this evening from Apple, Microsoft and Google.
September S&P 500
My S&P plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 4378 buy level before rallying to my 4390 T/P level and I am now flat. The S&P rally continued into the close as the September Contract hit another new all-time closing high at 4415. This morning the Hong Kong Tech sector is down 5% after falling 4% yesterday and needs to be watched carefully as we wait for the earnings from Apple and Google this evening. This week will be wild with data points as we have the FOMC Statement and Powell press conference tomorrow evening, followed by Facebook earnings after tomorrow’s close and of course GDP on Thursday ahead of Friday’s Month-End. With Retail buying piling in to buy stocks at the highest valuations in history, if anything goes wrong this week, we could be in for a retail bloodbath. Market Cap to GDP is now at a mind boggling 208% and nobody cares while the S&P yield continues to fall. It was interesting that the VIX closed higher by 2% last night despite the record closes in all three main U.S. Indexes. The S&P has now rallied almost 200 Handles from last Monday’s 4224 low print. We are now in the peak on everything in my opinion: Growth, Liquidity, Debt, Money Supply and of course Valuations. There is risk that the S&P can trade to 4450 from here. Today, I will raise my sell level slightly to 4422/4437 with a higher 4451 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The S&P has support from 4367/4382 where I will again be a buyer with a 4353 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 4413. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4393.
The boring sideways price action in the Euro has now continued for the past two months with the market closing either side of 1.1800 during this time. I am still flat the Euro and today I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 1.1695/1.1745 with the same 1.1655 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1.1775.
September Dollar Index
No Change. I am still a seller from 93.05/93.45 with the same 93.81 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 92.85.
It was interesting that the DAX could not rally yesterday despite most of the European Indices closing higher. Today, I will leave my 15320/15400 buy level unchanged with the same 15245 stop and 15445 T/P level.
No Change. I am still a small buyer on any further dip lower to 6900/6950 with the same 6765 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 6980.
Dow Rolling Contract
Frustratingly, the Dow just missed my 34750 buy level before rallying over 350 points into the close and I am still flat. Today, I will raise my buy level to 34700/34850 with a higher 34595 ‘’Closing Stop’’. After the Dow hit my initial 35130 sell level, I covered this short position at 35120 as I did not want to be short overnight. The Dow has further resistance from 35250/35400 where I will again be a seller with a 35525 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 34950. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 35130.
Unfortunately, the NASDAQ made a low at 15037, just missing my 15030 initial buy level before rallying 90 points into the close and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 14960/15040 while leaving my 14845 wider ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I still do not want to be short the NASDAQ at this time. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15095.
My BUND plan worked well with the market trading higher to my 176.35 sell level before trading lower to my 176.05 T/P level and I am still flat. The BUND has resistance from 176.35/176.75 where I will again be a seller with a 177.05 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 176.10.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still a small buyer from 1764/1779 with a lower 1755 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1885.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still long at 25.40 with the same 25.70 T/P level. I will leave my stop unchanged at 24.75 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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