On 27/08/2021 TraderTalent.com is bringing you another guest post from Bryan Noble.
U.S. Equity Markets fell yesterday after hitting new highs on Wednesday, led by the Russell 2000 which closed with a loss of 1.13%. The small sell-off in U.S. Indexes saw the VIX surge over 12%. Jobs data and Federal Reserve commentary were the big stories of the day. Before the open, labour market data showed that Jobless Claims rose slightly, but still remain near their post-pandemic lows. In an interview with CNBC, Kansas City Fed President Esther George said the U.S. economy has reached a point where the central bank can begin removing some of the emergency support. That was followed by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard, who said that costs are rising more than expected, which should lead the Fed to begin tapering its asset purchases. Now, all eyes turn to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech this afternoon, with eyes peeled for any clues on tapering decisions. European Markets closed lower. The European Union was said to consider reimposing a travel ban on visitors from the U.S., as the infection rate was far above the allowable level under regional guidelines. GFK SE’s German consumer sentiment index data for September was weaker than expected, as a slower pace of coronavirus vaccinations hurt economic recovery optimism. European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane said it is fully prepared to act if a withdrawal of stimulus measures by the Federal Reserve hurts Euro-Zone financing conditions. In Asia, The Bank of Korea raised its benchmark interest rate for the first time in three years, stating it would gradually adjust support for the economy as it focuses on removing financial risks. China’s President Xi Jinping said the country would achieve its 6% growth target this year despite COVID-19 restrictions, as it should better coordinate development policies. Japan’s services industry costs for July were weaker than expected, easing versus June as more difficult comparisons were harder to overcome. Australia’s private capital investment figures for the second quarter were stronger than anticipated, implying companies are increasingly optimistic about their business prospects. Elsewhere, Gold rallied 0.6% after the terror attack in Kabul, while Bitcoin fell 4% after the Wall Street Journal was cautious on El Salvador’s rollout of bitcoin as legal tender.
To mark my 2375th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 85 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1427 points for August, having closed July with a gain of 996 points. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, and 2273 points last December. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
The S&P 500 closed 0.58% lower at a price of 4470.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 192 points lower for a 0.54% loss at a price of 35,213.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.59% lower at a price of 15,276.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.5% lower.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.5%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.36% lower at a price of 27,641
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.1% higher.
The Euro closed 0.1% lower at $1.1758.
The British Pound closed 0.4% lower at 1.3697.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.1%, closing at $109.89.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed two basis points higher at -0.41%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed one basis points lower at 0.59%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed one basis points higher at 1.34%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.30% lower at $67.42 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.60% higher at $1,798.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German PPI Which rose 2.2% versus +0.8% expected. At 1.30 pm we have Personal Income/Spending, Trade Balance and Wholesale Inventories. Finally, at 300 pm we have the virtual speech from Fed Chairman Powell on ‘’Monetary Policy in an Uneven Economy’’, and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
September S&P 500
Frustratingly, the S&P made a low of 4462 overnight, just missing my 4460 buy level before rallying 20 Handles as we wait for Powell’s key speech this afternoon. I do not expect him to announce any tapering as he kicks the can down the road again. If the market sells off after rallying initially then we may finally be set up for a more meaningful correction. The S&P has support from 4437/4452 and I will lower my buy level to this area with a 4425 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Meanwhile, I will leave my 4495/4511 sell level unchanged with the same 4521 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4464. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 4485.
No Change. I am still a small buyer from 1.1675/1.1725 with the same 1.1639 tight stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1.1755.
September Dollar Index
The Dollar has not moved all week and I am still flat. I will continue to be small seller from 93.30/93.70 with the same 94.05 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 93.05.
Even though I do not like the price action in the DAX, I am reluctant to go short as anytime I have tried a short position, it has proved difficult to make points. The DAX has strong support from 15540/15610 and I will continue to be a buyer in this area with a 15475 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15660.
I am still flat and today I will raise my buy level to 6995/7055 with a higher 6949 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 7085.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 35210 buy level just before last night’s close before rallying this morning to my 35295 revised T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer from 34980/35130 with a 34845 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I am not going to chase the Dow lower, leaving my 35580/35730 sell level unchanged with the same 35855 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 35240. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 35480.
No Change. I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 15220/15140 with the same 15065 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Ahead of the weekend I do not want to be short the NASDSAQ. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15275.
Following Wednesday’s aggressive sell-off, the Bund traded in a narrow range yesterday and I am still flat. The Bund has resistance from 176.50/177.00 where I will be a small seller with the same 17731 tight stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 176.20.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold just missed my 1770 buy level before rallying back above 1800 after the terror attack in Kabul. Ahead of Powell’s speech I will leave my 1755/1770 buy level unchanged with the same 1743 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1778.
Silver Rolling Contract
Very little movement in Silver all-week and I am still flat. Silver has support from 22.60/23.20 and I will continue to be a buyer on any dip to this area with the same 22.25 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 23.55.
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