On 29/10/2021 TraderTalent.com is bringing you another guest post from Bryan Noble.
In contrast to Wednesday, U.S. Equity Markets finished yesterday’s trading session higher, led by both the NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 closing at new all-time highs, as the NDX led the rally with a gain of 1.15%. 281,000 individuals filed Jobless Claims in the week ending October 23, according to the U.S. Department of Labour. This was below the prior week’s upwardly revised 291,000 figure and Wall Street’s estimate of 288,000. Meanwhile, the National Association of Realtors (“NAR”) said Pending Home Sales fell by 23% in September from the month prior. The NAR’s pending home sales index is now at 116.7 versus August’s reading of 119.4. In the S&P 500, all 11 of the sectors finished higher. European Markets closed higher. German employment figures for October were stronger than anticipated, signalling that regional economic growth continues to strengthen. The European Central Bank (“ECB”) will continue to provide pandemic stimulus for now…The ECB announced that it would be maintaining its current monetary policy. That means the European interest rates for money lending will remain low. The ECB said it plans to maintain its current strategy until national inflation stabilises at its 2% target in the medium term. In its press release, the ECB said it will continue buying government bonds, but at a moderately lower pace than the previous six months. Its asset purchase program (“APP”) will still make net purchases at a monthly pace of $23.3 billion. The ECB’s goal is to keep costs for money lending down while the European economy continues to rebound from its 2020 lows. The ECB’s monthly APP is funded by its pandemic emergency purchase program (“PEPP”). The fund has a total envelope of $21.5 trillion and is set to end in March 2022. According to Reuters, the ECB does not expect to hit the 2% mark until a few years in the future. But the public has concerns about Europe’s current inflation pressures. The bank’s current inflation forecast anticipates 2.2% by the end of the year, 1.7% in 2022, and 1.5% in 2023. So that’s below its target. But the ECB will be updating its predictions in December. At that time, if the ECB expects higher inflation levels over the next two years, the bank could possibly decide to ease its COVID-19 stimulus and return to a more traditional policy. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kari said the country would return to the bargaining table for nuclear talks starting in November. European Union COVID-19 vaccinations rose to 584.5 million, with more than 63.9% of its residents having received inoculations. In Asia, China Foreign Ministry Spokesman Zhao Lijian said repeated U.S. support of Taiwan risks damaging the relationship between the two countries. The Bank of Japan left monetary policy largely unchanged because of COVID-19 restrictions over the summer and inflation that will remain below 2% for at least another two years. China’s National Development and Reform Commission was said to have met with coal companies to discuss ways to bring prices down. South Korean Vice Finance Minister Ahm Do-geol said the government would cut back on the issuance of Treasuries to stabilise the bond market. Elsewhere, Oil rose 0.51% on news that the U.S. and Iran would resume talks, while Gold closed 0.12% higher on Dollar weakness.
To mark my 2425th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 30 points yesterday and is now ahead by 935 points for October after making 2866 points in September, having closed August with a gain of 1543 points, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, and 2273 points last December. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
The S&P 500 closed 0.98% higher at a price of 4596.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 239 points higher for a 0.68% gain at a price of 35,730.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.15% higher at a price of 15,778.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.6% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.5%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.96% lower at a price of 28,820.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.7% lower.
The Euro closed 0.6% higher at $1.1680.
The British Pound closed 03% higher at 1.3784.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.3%, closing at $11356.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed five basis points higher at -0.14%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed four basis points higher at 1.02%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed three basis points higher at 1.57%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.51% higher at $83.08 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.12% higher at $1,801.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German GDP at 9.00 am and this is followed by U.K. Consumer Credit, Mortgage Approvals and Net Lending to Individuals at 9.30 am. Next, we have Euro-Zone GDP and CPI at 10.00 am. At 1.30 pm we have U.S. Personal Income/Spending and at 2.45 pm by the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Survey. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
December S&P 500
Thankfully, we had no sell level in the S&P yesterday as the market rallied 40 Handles from where I marked prices 24 hours ago and I am still flat. There comes a time in every bubble when you ask yourself has everyone gone mad except me as I find it very hard to participate in this vertical madness. Despite GDP coming in well below forecasts with a 2% growth for Q3, Elon Musk is now worth $300bn -$50bn more than he was two days ago. It is incredible that with just 2% sales that Tesla is now worth more than all other car makers combined. Elon Musk as an individual is now worth more than Netflix, while in the last nine months he has added more wealth than Warren Buffet has accumulated in 91 years of his lifetime. Vertical Charts always end in tears with a serious loss of capital but we need a black swan event to happen first. It is interesting that the Bank Of Canada announced on Wednesday that it was stopping QE, while the BoE may raise Interest Rates soon. Meanwhile the Fed and ECB keep printing into an inflationary environment. The S&P has further resistance from 4595/4610 where I will be a seller with a 4623 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now raise my buy level to 4537/4552 with a 4522 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 4584. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4565.
After weeks of doing nothing, the Dollar weakened on the GDP release, driving the Euro higher to my 1.1660 sell level. I will add to this trade at 1.1720 with a tight 1.1741 stop. I will now raise my T/P level to 1.1635.
December Dollar Index
The Dollar fell 0.7% yesterday and I am still flat with the market trading at 93.35 as I go to press. We have strong support from 92.40/92.90 where I will be a buyer with a 91.95 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 93.20.
The DAX rallied after the ECB left Rates unchanged. I am still flat and I will now raise my buy level to 15460/15530 with a tight 15395 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15575.
The FTSE continues to struggle and I am still flat. With Gilt Yields trading above 1% this is weighing on the FTSE as the BoE contemplates higher rates. I will now lower my sell level to 7255/7305 with a 7341 tight stop. I still do not want to be long the FTSE at this time. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 7225.
Dow Rolling Contract
In contrast to Wednesday when the Dow closed on its low, a late rally saw the Dow rally into the close, finishing the day at its high of 35731. The Dow has resistance from 35980/36150 where I will be a small seller with a 36275 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now raise my buy level to 35400/35550 with a higher 35245 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 35840. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 35670.
The NASDAQ surged to new highs, trading the whole of my sell range for a 15735 average short position. As I wanted to be flat ahead of the earnings from Amazon and Apple (both weaker than expected) I covered this short position at 15705. As I go to press the NASDAQ is trading lower at 15665. We have resistance from 15805/15905 where I will again be a seller with a 16010 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 15745.
The BUND traded the whole of my buy range for a now 169.00 average long position. I will now lower my T/P level to 169.25 while leaving my 168.25 stop unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still a buyer from 1752/1767 with the same 1739 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1775.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still long at 24.00 with the same 24.30 T/P level. I will now raise my stop on this position to 23.49.
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