On 30/06/2021 TraderTalent.com is bringing you another guest post from Bryan Noble.
U.S. Equity Markets traded in a narrow range yesterday with no real direction as both the S&P and NASDAQ again closed at new all-time highs. The NDX led the rally with a gain of 0.33%. Markets opened higher before selling off throughout the day. U.S. Consumer Confidence hit a 16-month high thanks to growing labour market optimism, economic reopenings, and reduced inflation fears. Home prices in the U.S. also rose at their fastest pace in 15 years in April, signalling the demand for homes continues to outweigh the existing supply. President Joe Biden touted the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure proposal in a Wisconsin speech, saying that it would come with millions of jobs to support the economy. Banks were also in focus, with multiple big banks boosting dividend payouts after the Federal Reserve said they passed the recent round of stress tests. European Markets closed higher. Euro-Zone Economic Confidence data for June topped the consensus compared to May, hitting their highest level in 21 years. German Finance Minister Olaf Scholtz explained that the country has enough flexibility to offer economic support, adding that it should not change its mandate to borrow more money. European Central Bank Governing Council member Jens Weidmann noted it would withdraw emergency stimulus once the economic rebound is on more solid ground. In Asia, The People’s Bank of China noted the country’s economy is on pace for a stable rebound and that it would maintain ample liquidity in its financial system. Japan’s Retail Sales for May were better than anticipated, as the rate of decline improved compared to April, suggesting consumer activity may be improving. The Bank of Japan is considering adding interest rates to reserves to foster growth of lenders making loans to fight climate change. South Korea’s ruling party said it intends to pass legislation that would provide $30 billion in pandemic relief funds to households. Elsewhere, Oil closed 0.69% higher as OPEC+ released a positive outlook on the industry, while Gold fell over 1% on renewed Dollar strength. Finally, Bitcoin closed 5.5% higher after Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest said it planned to create a bitcoin exchange-traded fund.
To mark my 2350th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 95 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1130 points for June having made 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, 2273 points in December, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September and 2383 points in August. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
The S&P 500 closed 0.03% higher at a price of 4291.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 9 points higher for a 0.03% gain at a price of 34,292
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.33% higher at a price of 14,572.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.4% higher.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.2%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.03% higher at a price of 28,820.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.3% higher.
The Euro closed 0.2% lower at $1.1899.
The British Pound closed 0.2% lower at 1.3859.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.1%, closing at $110.46.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed one basis points higher at -0.17%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed one basis points lower at 0.73%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed one basis points lower at 1.48%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 069% higher at $73.35 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.04% lower at $1,760.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of UK GDP which fell 1.5% versus -1.6% expected. At 8.55 am we have German Unemployment, followed by Euro-Zone CPI at 10.00 am. U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications will be released at 12.00 pm and the ADP Unemployment Change at 1.15 pm Finally, we have the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Survey at 2.45 pm and Pending Home Sales at 3.00 pm.
September S&P 500
The relentless move higher in the S&P continues with market hitting a new all-time high of 4300 in the Cash Market. Despite all three Indexes closing higher, the McClellan Oscillator weakened to close with a negative print of 64. I am still flat the S&P and ahead of the important ADP Employment Change at 1.15 pm, I will now raise my sell level slightly to 4296/4310 with a higher 4321 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will also raise my buy level to 4251/4266 with a 4239 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 4287. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4276.
The Euro just missed my 1.1875 buy level with a 11877 low print before rallying 30 points and I am still flat. Today, I will again lower my sell level to 1.1810/1.1860 with a lower 1.1775 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1.1890.
September Dollar Index
I am still flat the Dollar. The Dollar has strong resistance from 92.35/92.85 where I will be a seller with a 93.10 tight stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 92.10.
The boring sideways price action in the DAX shows no sign of ending as the market continues to trade above the key 15300 pivot level. I am still flat and today, I will again raise my buy level to 15400/15480 with a 15345 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15525.
No Change. I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 6905/6955 with the same 6869 stop. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 6985.
Dow Rolling Contract
With both Oil prices and House Prices surging it is difficult to agree with the Fed that Inflation is ‘’transitory’’. PCE which is the fed’s favourite tool for measuring inflation rose to 3.9% this month, the highest level since 1991. The markets are ignoring the inflation theory and are in the mode of buying everything. This is happening despite the fact that we all know how this ended up when we have tried it before. I am still flat the Dow as the market just missed my 34150 buy level. This morning we are trading higher at 34300. I will not chase the Dow, therefore leaving my 34000/34150 buy level unchanged with the same 33875 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now lower my sell level to 34550/34710 with a lower 34855 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 34270. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 34440.
Just on the close last night the NASDAQ traded higher to my initial 14580 sell level. I am still short and I will continue to add to this position at 14700 with the same 14810 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now raise my T/P level to 14550 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members. Meanwhile, I will continue to be a strong buyer on any further dip to 14260/14180 with the same 14095 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 14320.
No Change. I am still a seller from 172.70/173.15 with the same 173.41 tight stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 172.45.
Gold Rolling Contract
My Gold plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 1756 buy level before rallying to my 1763 revised T/P level and I am now flat. Gold has strong support from 1722/1736 which must hold or this sell-off could turn ugly. I will be a buyer in this range with a 1709 wider stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1745.
Silver Rolling Contract
My Silver plan also worked well with the market trading lower to my 25.50 buy level before bouncing to my 25.75 revised T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer from 24.75/25.35 with a lower 24.29 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 25.65.
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