On 30/08/2021 TraderTalent.com is bringing you another guest post from Bryan Noble.
U.S. Equity Markets finished the week at all-time highs, led by the Small Cap Russell 2000 which closed with an impressive gain of 2.85%, while the NASDAQ 100 closed 1.01% higher. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and inflation data were the big stories of the day. Core personal consumption expenditures (“PCE”), the Federal Reserve’s main measure of inflation, came in well above the central bank’s 2% target again. But the monthly data fell from the month before, indicating that inflation could be normalising. In his much anticipated speech, Powell said it would be appropriate to begin pulling back on asset purchases. He elaborated that since the July meeting, price stability and employment have made even more progress. While Powell did not confirm the change will happen, his comments suggested a pullback of economic support will start soon. A formal announcement might come at the September meeting. However, he said this did not mean the Fed will raise rates anytime soon. European Markets closed mixed. French Consumer Confidence data for August was weaker than expected, declining for the second consecutive month, as increasing COVID-19 infections weighed. The European Union was said to be readying a probe into Nvidia’s planned $54 billion takeover of British chipmaker Arm, citing possible anticompetitive practices. European Central Bank Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said it may raise the 2021 growth forecast at the next meeting due to a stronger-than-anticipated rebound. In Asia, China’s Ministry of Finance said it will speed up local bond sales and accelerate government spending, in an effort to support economic growth. Japanese Liberal Democratic Party member Masahisa Sato stressed the importance of defense ties during a meeting with Taiwan politicians, as a way to counter pressure from China. The Bank of Korea is expected to raise interest rates one more time before Governor Lee Ju-yeol departs next spring, in an effort to normalise policy as the economy recovers. Australian Retail Sales figures for July were weaker than anticipated, falling versus June, as a resurgence in coronavirus infections caused the reintroduction of social-distancing restrictions. Elsewhere, Oil closed 1.93% as Hurricane Ida threatened supply, while Gold rose 1.46% on Dollar weakness.
To mark my 2375th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was flat on Friday and is still ahead by 1427 points for August, having closed July with a gain of 996 points. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, and 2273 points last December. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
The S&P 500 closed 0.88% higher at a price of 4509.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 242 points higher for a 0.69% gain at a price of 35,455.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.01% higher at a price of 15,432.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.3% higher.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.2%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 054% higher at a price of 27,789
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.4% lower.
The Euro closed 0.3% higher at $1.1793.
The British Pound closed 0.5% higher at 1.3762.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.2%, closing at $109.74.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed one basis points lower at -0.42%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed one basis points lower at 0.58%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed four basis points lower at 1.30%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.93% higher at $68.72 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.46% higher at $1,824.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone Economic Sentiment Indicator at 10.00 am, followed by German CPI at 1.00 pm. Finally, we have U.S. Pending Home Sales at 3.00 pm and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index at 3.30 pm.
September S&P 500
The week ended with an ‘’Everything Rally’’ after a full ‘’risk on’’ day, where nearly all asset prices closed the session higher. Stock prices, Bond prices, Commodity Indexes, Precious Metals, Forex, Bitcoin, Industrial Metals and the entire Energy Complex all rallied after benign comments from Fed Chair Powell. This move higher saw the whole of my S&P sell level get hit and I am now short at an average rate of 4503. Internally the market was strong with the McClellan Oscillator closing at +77, well above Thursday’s -35 print With valuations even more stretched and Margin Debt at nose- bleed levels, while Market Cap to GDP continues to print above 200%, there is no justification for these prices. However, the Fed will not allow even a 2% correction as we saw last Thursday week before driving the markets to yet more all-time highs. I will now raise my T/P level on this short position to 4498. Meanwhile I will leave my 4521 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. The S&P has support from 4472/4487 where I will be a buyer with a 4458 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The S&P has strong resistance from 4535/4550 where I will be an aggressive seller with a 4575 wider stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4497. If I am taken short a second time I will have a T/P level at 4515.
The Euro again missed my 1.1725 buy level (low of 1.1732) before rallying to a high of 1.1800 and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 1.1710/1.1750 with a higher 1.1675 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1.1780.
September Dollar Index
The Dollar just missed my initial 93.30 sell level before selling off to sit at 92.65 this morning. I will now lower my sell level to 93.05/93.45 with a tight 93.71 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 92.80.
The DAX continues to struggle near all-time highs and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 15600/15680 with a higher 15535 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15730.
I am still flat as the FTSE never came close to my buy level on Friday. With the UK closed for its August Bank Holiday I will stay flat the market until we re-open tomorrow.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow continues to lag the rally in both the S&P and NASDAQ and I am still flat. The Dow has strong resistance from 35850/36050 where I will be an aggressive seller with a 36305 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The Dow has short-term support from 35150/35300 where I will be a small buyer with a tight 34895 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 35600. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 35405.
The NASDAQ never came close to my 15220 buy level on Friday before surging to close at yet another all-time high. I will now raise my buy level to 15250/15330 with a higher 14175 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The NASDAQ has resistance from 15510/15600 where I will be a small seller with a 15705 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15395. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 15450.
No Change. I am still a small seller on any further rally to 176.50/177.00 with the same 177.31 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 176.20.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold has been the worst performing asset this year. Despite Gol rallying over 1.5% on Friday, I still do not trust this market. I will not chase the Gold Market higher and I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 1770/1785 with a higher 1759 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1792.
Silver Rolling Contract
Frustratingly, Silver missed my 23.20 buy level with a 23.27 low print, before following Gold higher, to sit at 23.92 this morning. I will now raise my buy level to 22.90/23.50 with a tight 22.45 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 23.85.
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